How much should we trust stock market predictions? One particular memory stands out.  The most common complaint in 2000? I sold my Nortel too soon! The most common complaint in 2001: I wish I sold my Nortel sooner! A Case Study Following predictions can be very problematic. Dr. Michael Burry became famous for predicting the eventual 2008...Read More

Inflation changes everything. Investment portfolios can be affected by inflation in three crucial ways: 1) Portfolio Correlations     2) Real Returns   3) Sector Outlooks It is important to have a game plan for investing during periods of inflation. Portfolio Correlations Portfolio diversification is weakened (gold line) if stocks and bonds move together. Inflation can cause stocks and...Read More

Nothing goes up forever.  Likewise, the stock market rhythm of boom and bust creates a tendency for long-term breaks after many years of gains. When we step back and examine a stock market chart, we may observe multi-year periods of both strong gains and stagnation:  ​​As you know, we have recently experienced many years of...Read More

“The most important lessons learned in investing are learned in the tough times.     ~Howard Marks Bear markets are inevitable.  If you are eighty-five, you have seen 14 and if you are forty, you have seen 5.  This chart tells how many bear markets occurred in your lifetime:  This next chart highlights some historical declines...Read More

We have all experienced a tremendous amount of change during the first half of this decade! In his article, The Most Volatile Decade, Ben Carlson notes the paradox for investors during these last five years: “The booms and busts are happening faster than ever yet the market continues to charge higher.” “Although this decade has seen a...Read More