How much should we trust stock market predictions?
One particular memory stands out.
The most common complaint in 2000?
I sold my Nortel too soon!
The most common complaint in 2001:
I wish I sold my Nortel sooner!
A Case Study
Following predictions can be very problematic.
Dr. Michael Burry became famous for predicting the eventual 2008 stock market crash and for saying, “I may be early, but I’m not wrong.”
However, this analysis of his predictions shows that his forecasts are actually more often wrong than right!
Here are some of his predictions over the last five years:
Yes, predicting stock markets often enough means some predictions will eventually prove to be “right.” But perhaps, some of the following stock market predictions can help us to gain a better perspective?
As Promised – Some of the Worst Predictions Ever
- The impact of the internet will be “no greater than the fax machine’s. – Paul Krugman
- “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” – Steve Ballmer
- “It is virtually certain Google’s stock will be highly disappointing to investors foolish enough to participate in its overhyped offering — you can hold me to that.” – Whitney Tilson
- “These subprime assets are so riskless that their capital for holding them should be under 2 percent.” – AIG
- “NO! NO! NO! Bear Sterns is fine. Don’t move your money from Bear, that’s just being silly.” – Jim Cramer, CNBC
We hope you enjoyed these quotes!
